Could Democrats Replace Biden? Here’s How, And Why It’s Unlikely

The 2024 Democratic primary is still a ways off, but speculation is already swirling about whether President Biden will face a challenger for the nomination. While it’s certainly possible, the reality is that several factors make a successful primary challenge highly improbable.

Let’s break down the scenarios and the reasons behind the unlikelihood of a Biden replacement.

Scenario 1: Biden Decides Not to Run

This is the most straightforward path to a new nominee. If Biden, currently 80 years old, decides against running for a second term, the field would open up for other Democratic candidates. This scenario has precedent: In 2016, Hillary Clinton, the presumptive frontrunner, faced a strong challenge from Bernie Sanders.

Scenario 2: A Challenger Emerges with Strong Support

Even if Biden runs, a strong challenger could emerge to challenge him. A candidate with a compelling message, strong fundraising abilities, and grassroots support could potentially pose a threat.

However, this scenario is less likely.

• Biden has a strong base of support: Despite his age, Biden enjoys the support of many Democrats who appreciate his experience and leadership.

• Recent polling shows Biden as the frontrunner: A recent poll showed Biden leading potential challengers like Vice President Kamala Harris and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg by significant margins.

• Challengers would face an uphill battle: A successful challenger would need to overcome Biden’s name recognition, fundraising advantages, and existing support within the party.

Why a Replacement Is Unlikely

• Biden’s performance in office: Despite facing numerous challenges, Biden has achieved some notable successes, including passing the American Rescue Plan and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.

• The political landscape: The current political environment is highly polarized, and Democrats are likely to rally around their incumbent president, especially against a Republican challenger.

• Lack of a clear alternative: While there are potential candidates who could challenge Biden, none have emerged as a clear frontrunner or have shown significant momentum.

The Bottom Line: While it’s never impossible for a challenger to emerge and win a primary, the current political landscape and Biden’s strengths make a replacement unlikely. However, the Democratic primary remains a fluid situation, and the dynamics could shift as we get closer to the 2024 election. Stay tuned.