Fantasy Spin: NHL Free Agent Signings – Who’s Hot and Who’s Not

The NHL free agency frenzy is over, and the dust has settled. We’ve seen big-name moves, surprising trades, and a flurry of signings. But for fantasy hockey managers, the question remains: who are the winners and losers of this free agency period?

Let’s dive into some key signings and analyze their fantasy impact, factoring in past performance and team context:

The Big Winners:

• Ryan O’Reilly to the St. Louis Blues (3 years, $7.5 million AAV): O’Reilly’s move to the Blues was a major coup. He’s a proven point producer and a dominant force on face-offs. In his last full season (2021-22) with the Colorado Avalanche, he tallied 75 points in 82 games. The Blues are in need of a center with offensive upside, and O’Reilly fits the bill perfectly. Fantasy Impact: Expect O’Reilly to continue his strong point production and contribute heavily in both goals and assists.
• Jonathan Toews to the Winnipeg Jets (1 year, $5 million AAV): Toews’ move to Winnipeg is a gamble, but a calculated one. The Jets need a veteran presence on their top line and a leader in the locker room. Toews has struggled with injuries in recent years, but he remains a skilled forward with a high ceiling. Fantasy Impact: His fantasy value is uncertain. If he stays healthy and adapts well to Winnipeg, he could be a solid contributor. However, injury concerns and a potential decline in production could limit his upside.

The Potential Busts:

• Evgeni Malkin to the Pittsburgh Penguins (4 years, $6.1 million AAV): Malkin returning to the Penguins was a sentimental move, but it’s a risky one from a fantasy perspective. He’s coming off a season with just 20 goals and 42 points, and he’s entering his 17th NHL season. Fantasy Impact: Expect a further decline in production. Malkin’s days of being a top-tier fantasy asset are likely over.
• Phil Kessel to the Vegas Golden Knights (1 year, $1.5 million AAV): Kessel is a known commodity: a consistent scorer with a high shot volume. But, he’s a one-dimensional player and likely won’t see much ice time in a stacked Vegas lineup. Fantasy Impact: While he may be a decent late-round pick, Kessel’s fantasy value will likely be limited due to reduced playing time and competition for scoring opportunities.

The Unexpected Gems:

• Kevin Hayes to the Nashville Predators (5 years, $5.1 million AAV): Hayes is a versatile forward who can play both center and wing. He’s coming off a strong season with the Philadelphia Flyers, where he tallied 54 points in 79 games. Fantasy Impact: He could be a steal in fantasy drafts. Nashville is a strong offensive team with a need for a reliable center. Hayes could thrive in this environment.

Data-Driven Analysis:

To further analyze the fantasy impact of these signings, we can utilize data from past seasons. By comparing a player’s performance in previous years to their current team’s offensive metrics and power-play opportunities, we can predict their potential production. This analysis helps identify hidden gems and potential busts, giving you an edge in your fantasy drafts.

The Bottom Line:

While fantasy value is influenced by various factors, these free agency moves offer valuable insights for fantasy managers. Analyze these players’ past performance, their new team’s offensive strategies, and the potential for increased or decreased playing time. This data-driven approach, combined with a dose of fantasy intuition, can help you draft a winning fantasy team.