Le Pen’s Dream Dented: National Rally Set to Fall Short of Parliamentary Majority, Poll Shows

The National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, is set to fall short of a parliamentary majority in the upcoming French legislative elections, according to a new poll. The poll, conducted by IFOP and published in the French daily Le Journal du Dimanche, reveals a significant setback for Le Pen’s party, which had hoped to secure a majority in the National Assembly and exert significant influence on government policy.

The poll shows that the National Rally is projected to win between 100 and 130 seats in the 577-member National Assembly, falling well short of the 289 seats needed for a majority. This suggests that President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party is likely to remain the dominant force in French politics, though they may face challenges in forming a stable government.

Key Takeaways:

• The poll, conducted between May 25 and 26, surveyed 1,003 people and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

• The National Rally’s projected performance represents a significant drop from their 2017 results, where they won 89 seats in the National Assembly.

• The poll indicates that the left-wing NUPES coalition, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, is projected to win between 150 and 190 seats.

• The Renaissance party is predicted to secure between 200 and 250 seats, potentially forming a majority with the support of smaller centrist and right-wing parties.

What This Means for French Politics:

This poll suggests that the French electorate is not yet ready to embrace the National Rally’s vision for the country. While Le Pen’s party has gained traction in recent years, particularly among voters concerned about immigration and economic inequality, the poll indicates a strong desire for a more moderate approach.

The projected results could have significant implications for the next five years of French politics. While Macron will likely remain in power, he faces the prospect of a more divided and challenging political landscape. The potential for a coalition government with a mix of parties could lead to political instability and make it difficult to enact meaningful reforms.

What’s Next?

The upcoming parliamentary elections, scheduled for June 12 and 19, will be crucial in determining the direction of French politics for the next five years. While the poll suggests that the National Rally is unlikely to achieve a majority, the final outcome will depend on voter turnout and the success of campaigning efforts by each party. The election promises to be a tight race, with implications for the French economy, social policy, and international relations.

Keywords: French elections, National Rally, Marine Le Pen, Emmanuel Macron, Renaissance party, parliamentary majority, NUPES coalition, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, French politics, poll results, election forecast