The Tories Have Lost. Now Which Voters Should They Chase?

The Conservatives are reeling. The recent local elections were a devastating blow, with Labour making significant gains and the Tories losing control of key councils. The writing is on the wall: if they want to stay relevant, let alone in power, they need to find a new path. But where should they look?

The elephant in the room: the Tories’ traditional core vote – older, white, working-class voters – is shrinking and aging. This demographic is simply not enough to win elections anymore. The Tories need to expand their appeal, but who should they target?

Let’s break down the key voter groups the Conservatives should be chasing:

1. The Disillusioned Labour Voter: The “Red Wall”

The “Red Wall” – traditionally Labour strongholds in the north of England – swung decisively to the Tories in 2019. This shift was driven by Brexit and promises of “levelling up” – promises that now feel hollow.

Data points to a significant opportunity: according to YouGov polling, 28% of people who voted Conservative in 2019 said they would consider voting Labour in the next election. This group is disillusioned with the Tories’ performance and are looking for tangible change.

How to win them back:

• Deliver on promises: The Tories must demonstrate real progress in “levelling up” by investing in infrastructure, education, and jobs in these communities.

• Address cost-of-living concerns: Focusing on measures to reduce the burden of rising energy bills, food prices, and other essentials will resonate deeply.

• Listen to their concerns: Genuine engagement with local communities, addressing their specific needs and anxieties, is crucial.

2. The Young and the Restless: Millennials and Gen Z

Millennials and Gen Z are the future of the electorate, but they haven’t been particularly enthusiastic about the Conservatives. They care about issues like climate change, social justice, and affordable housing, issues often seen as less important to older voters.

Data shows a significant gap: In the 2019 general election, only 36% of 18-24 year olds voted Conservative, compared to 54% of those aged 65 and over. This disconnect needs to be addressed.

How to win them over:

• Tackle climate change: Presenting a robust and achievable plan for achieving net zero emissions will be critical.

• Invest in affordable housing: Addressing the housing crisis, particularly for young people, is essential.

• Promote social mobility: Offer concrete policies that give young people a fair shot at success, regardless of their background.

3. The Disaffected Remainers: A Lost Generation?

The 2016 Brexit vote left a deep chasm in the electorate. Many Remainers feel ignored and alienated by the Conservative government’s approach to Brexit.

Data highlights the challenge: Polls show that Remainers are much more likely to vote Labour than Conservative. This group feels like they’ve been left behind, and their concerns are not being addressed.

How to win them back:

• Acknowledge the pain of Brexit: Openly acknowledging the challenges faced by Remainers and offering solutions will show genuine empathy.

• Focus on economic benefits: Highlighting the economic opportunities presented by Brexit, particularly in sectors like trade and technology, is important.

• Rebuild trust: Demonstrating a commitment to fairness, transparency, and open dialogue is crucial to rebuild trust with this group.

4. The Women Voters: A Crucial Segment

Historically, women have been a key demographic for the Conservatives. However, recent data suggests this may be changing. Women are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the Tories’ handling of issues like childcare, healthcare, and pay equality.

Data reveals a growing gap: In 2019, only 42% of women voted Conservative, compared to 53% of men. This is a significant shift that the Tories cannot afford to ignore.

How to win them over:

• Invest in childcare: Providing affordable, high-quality childcare will be crucial to supporting working mothers.

• Improve healthcare: Addressing the growing pressure on the NHS and ensuring access to affordable healthcare will resonate with women.

• Promote gender equality: Pushing for policies that promote pay equality and combat discrimination in the workplace will be important.

The Takeaway: A New Vision is Needed

The Conservatives are at a crossroads. They cannot simply rely on their traditional base; they need to adapt and expand their appeal. By focusing on the key voter groups outlined above, the Tories can build a stronger and more inclusive vision for the future.

Ultimately, the path to success lies in addressing the real concerns of voters across the spectrum. No longer can the Conservatives afford to ignore the voices of young people, women, disillusioned Labour voters, or the disaffected Remainers. It’s time for a new era, a new vision, and a new approach.